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Charter of the Federal Forecasters Consortium

The 15th Federal Forecasters Conference (FFC/2006) - September 28, 2006

In the tradition of past meetings, FFC/2006 will provide a forum where forecasters from federal agencies and other organizations can meet and discuss various aspects of forecasting in the United States. Look for information this Spring.

Theme for the Conference

Aging: Implications for Forecasting

As the population of the United States and other major countries continues to age, policy makers at every level face major challenges in providing needed services while maintaining economic prosperity. A graying society has major effects on the dynamics of our economic and societal activities, including the composition of the labor force, the nature of jobs to be filled, and the demands for goods and services, including health care, pension benefits, and other public services. The implications of this aging phenomenon on forecasting in the public sector are equally profound, affecting both the input side and the output side of many projection models. The 2006 Federal Forecasters Conference seeks to highlight key aspects of how forecasting must account for the aging trend, a trend which demographers have long seen coming.
Papers and Proceedings from Previous Conferences

Monthly Brown Bag Seminar: 

The Federal Forecasters Consortium (FFC), in alliance with The George Washington University (GWU), is pleased to announce our Brown Bag Seminar Series on Forecasting.
 
Also, the FFC Organizing Committee invites you to present a paper at the FFC Brown Bag Seminar Series at GWU which is held from 12:30 to 2:00 pm each month. For more information please contact :
 
Mitra Toossi [Toossi.Mitra@bls.gov]
Federal Forecasters Consortium,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections
2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Room #2135
Washington, DC 20212-0001
 
Previous Brown Bag Seminar:
 
January 11, 2005
Russell (Rusty) Geiman, Chief Projections and Forecasting Group within the IRS Office of Research, Analysis and Statistics presented "Overview of Projections, Data and Other Research Information Available from IRS".
Slide Presentation
December 14, 2004
Greg Won, from the Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, presented "Long Term Health Care Spending".
Slide Presentation
September 14, 2004
Title and Presenter: An Evaluation of BLS Labor Force, Employment, and Occupation Forecasts for the Year 2000, presented by Dr. Herman Stekler of GWU
Abstract: This paper evaluates the labor force, employment by industry, and occupation projections that BLS made in 1989 for the year 2000. These forecasts have been evaluated previously but it is possible to ask additional questions and to use evaluation methodologies that are different from those employed earlier.
June 8, 2004
Title and Presenter: Predictable Uncertainty and Forecast Failure: A First Look at the Issues, presented by Fred Joutz of GWU
Abstract: The seminar presented an introduction to recent research in the area of what forecasters know and don't know when they forecast and the decomposition of forecast errors. Objective: to obtain an understanding of what a forecast is conditioned upon and the potential sources for the forecasts missing the mark. The traditional approach to sources of forecast error focused on bias, measurement error, and the estimated variance. Clements and Hendry have developed a more modern rigorous taxonomy of forecast failure and suggested or provided a theoretical justification for attempting to fix or avoid forecast failures.
May 11, 2004
Title: The Use of Econometric and Time Series Methods in Health Care Forecasting
Federal Forecasters Consortium/George Washington University Economic Forecasting Seminar Series
Presented by Richard Bjorklund, Carl F. Newman, and Donald Stockford, Office of the Assistant Deputy Under Secretary for Health, Department of Veterans Affairs
Abstract: Issues and methodologies in developing forecasts of demand for health care services are the central theme of this presentation and discussion. Modeling methods proven in forecasting and tracking such things as gross national product, crop yields, and livestock production are, in many circumstances, appropriate to the issue of addressing demand for health care services. In particular, traditional econometric models along with univariate time series methods such as the Box-Jenkins Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method have considerable appeal to predicting future hospital or outpatient care usage and allow for statistical testing of model accuracy and validity. There is considerable potential for incorporating conceptual complexity, explanatory detail, and variance minimization into health care related forecasts based on traditional econometric and time series methods.
Slide Presentation
April 13, 2004
Title: USDA Baseline: Process, Models, and Applications
Federal Forecasters Consortium/George Washington University Economic Forecasting Seminar Series
Paul Westcott
Abstract
Slide Presentation

Federal Forecasters Conference Papers and Proceedings

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Reviewed/Updated: January 12, 2006
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